NO.154 Exposed in the typhoon 19 disaster. ・・・Theme label: Absence of the Japanese government's crisis management capabilities. It will be fatal.

Regarding the disaster countermeasures of Typhoon No. 19, since I landed on the Izu Peninsula, there was nothing I could mention in this blog until now.

Prior to the landing of Typhoon No. 19, the government first acted and appealed to the Japanese national mobilization system to prepare for the best possible response no matter what happens.

Typhoon No. 15 caused an unexpected situation. Typhoon No. 15 revealed that there was a problem with the disaster prevention system in Japan.
Japan's disaster prevention system seems to be a manual of countermeasures against situations that were anticipated in advance
Japan's disaster prevention system cannot respond to unexpected situations.
I thought that an unexpected situation would occur due to Typhoon No.19, so I thought it was necessary for the official residence to take measures to respond to the situation.

When various disasters occurred after the landing of the typhoon, I couldn't say anything about taking various measures according to the situation at each site.

However, I was trying to see what was exposed by the typhoon 19 disaster.

I thought it was necessary to reexamine Japan's disaster prevention system from the ground up.

During the Edo period, Edo was often hit by major fires. After the Great Fire of Meireki, the Edo Shogunate fundamentally changed Edo into a city that can cope with fire.

The Edo Shogunate has established a buffer zone in Edo where fires do not burn and spread. The shogunate developed a new residential area and moved people who lived in the buffer zone.

As a result of this urban development, the fire in Edo has been reduced to a small scale and the number of victims has been kept low in the event of a fire.
A system to quickly bring in timber from the surrounding area was established, and after the fire, the burned-out area was quickly rebuilt.

The houses in Edo were built on the premise of not knowing when they will be burned by fire, and can be quickly rebuilt.
The Edo people burned up in the fire even if they saved, so the money earned on that day was used up within that day.

From a macroeconomic point of view, the lives of the Edo people would always have stimulated consumption.
Also, from a macroeconomic point of view, fire can be regarded as a type of consumption, so recovery from fire would have been an effective economic policy.

In the Edo period, the shogunate had the ability to review these fundamental city plans.

I think that a fundamental review of the disaster prevention system will be necessary even in Japan today.
However, it is doubtful whether this fundamental review is possible in Japan today.

The Edo Shogunate returned all existing city plans to blank paper after the Great Fire of Meireki.
Then, after all new ideas came out, the city plan was recreated from scratch.
Can the current Japanese government do the same thing?

Japan's disaster prevention system will be built on top of the existing system.
This foundation part would have been designed with various assumptions when it was built.
The damage caused by Typhoon 19 is an unexpected situation.

There has been unprecedented heavy rain in the entire area of ​​Chubu, Kanto, Hokuriku and Tohoku.
In many unprecedented rivers in the past, every single river was flooded in many places.
The sequelae of flooding at each location were unprecedented in the past.
What happened without flooding up to now has occurred because of flooding.

It was proved that Japan's disaster prevention system cannot cope with this scale of heavy rain.

In the future, such typhoon damage will be repeated every year due to global warming.

The government may not be able to respond.
The bureaucrats assume that the work they have done is correct. And each person accumulates work.
All this accumulation will be affirmed.

If the government directs bureaucrats to devise a disaster prevention plan, it will only create a plan that will cause a new unexpected.

For example, many rivers did not assume backwater at all. Now backwater will be assumed. Then, the following unexpected will occur.

In the future, it will be necessary to prepare a flexible response according to the situation and a procedure until restoration, assuming that rivers will flood at the same time.
If the situation like this is repeated, the government will eventually come up with fundamental measures.

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NO.306 Message to President Trump 41 ・・・ This is a war between all mankind and the coronavirus. The meaning of President Trump's declaration would be beneficial. The whole world will be able to implement projects that put all the will and power of the nation in order to overcome coronavirus infection. Keynes policy is needed. Many companies around the world are temporarily suspended. Many people are fired temporarily. People who have purchased products until now can no longer purchase products. The performance of companies that continue to do business deteriorates. This causes a recession. The government needs to hire the unemployed and keep paying them. The government orders the required number of respirators. If there is not enough production equipment, the government will expand.

NO.303 Message to President Trump 39 ・・・ Considerations as of March 17, 2020 Japan Time. Countries have jointly implemented maximum quantitative easing. The Fed has moved to a virtually zero interest rate. Entrepreneurs are not willing to use the investment funds provided. Stock prices fall because investors can't find investment opportunities. In the United States and Europe, entrepreneurs do not try to solve problems themselves. They wait for others to help them. Then, I propose Keynes's policy. The United States sets a national purpose and declares a state enterprise to achieve the purpose. Giving huge funds to the national business. If war, the US government could do this. This is a war between all mankind and the coronavirus. I suggest that Trump do this.

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